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世紀川金會,誰是真正大贏家?

舉世矚目的川金會,兩大狂人經過一整個早上會談後,取得重大突破,並由美國總統川普親自召開記者會宣布成果。

整場記者會中,川普像是取得戰功一樣,細數金正恩如何做出讓步,但事實真像他講的如此美好嗎?

川普、金正恩簽署的文件中,美國和北韓承諾,在符合兩國人民所企盼的和平與繁榮前提下,建立「新的美朝關係」,並努力合作在朝鮮半島建立長久、穩定的和平政權。

其次,雙方重申履行今年4月27日在南韓簽署的板門店宣言(Panmunjom Declaration),北韓承諾邁向朝鮮半島完全去核。

同時,美國和北韓承諾返還戰俘、在戰鬥或任務中失蹤人員的遺體,也將即刻遣返已經確認身分的人。

「用和平來取代戰爭,北韓有無限可能,」川普說,北韓如果放棄發展核武,會在經濟上有很好發展空間,金正恩會被世人記得,是為北韓帶來繁榮的領袖。

從早上開始,川普和金正恩不斷在鏡頭前留下歷史畫面。兩人是1945年以來,美國、北韓首次在位領導人會談並簽署文件。金正恩更強調,全世界將見證一場重大轉變。

川普在記者會中感謝中國大陸、南韓、日本、新加坡等國領導人,幫忙美國和北韓關係更進一步,並感謝金正恩願意跨出大膽的一步,表示兩人間的會議「很有效、很誠實」,已就不少議題協商,未來會持續下去。

然而,這份文件與其說是宣言,不如說是意向書,並不具有法律效力。該怎麼實現金正恩承諾的「完全去核」,雙方該怎麼建立「新的美朝關係」,細節仍待討論。

川普接受提問時表示,儘管這份文件內沒有過去美國堅持的「可驗證、不可逆」的去核,日後會再討論是否「可驗證、不可逆」,會在驗證互信基礎後,派遣各國專家前往北韓了解。

因此,向來與川普立場相左的《華盛頓郵報》(The Washington Post)就酸川普,川金會只對兩人發展個人關係有助益,對如何促進「去核化」則幾乎完全無觸及。

知名北韓專家、韓國首爾國民大學教授蘭科夫(Andrei Lankov)也立即在推特上表示,今天的協議並沒有實際價值,美國做了重大讓步,但讓步也只做半套,而北韓可能會更膽大妄為,美國可說是一無所獲。


圖/川普和金正恩此次會面,金正恩算是得利不少。達志影像提供

其實,類似川金會的場面,過去也曾出現過。1994年3月,北韓經濟發展困難,拒絕國際原子能機構檢查提煉鈽的核設施,當時北韓談判代表更撂下狠話,表示不惜一切發動戰爭,把首爾變成一片火海。

後來,美國前總統卡特銜命前往平壤與時任北韓領導人金正日會談,並在兩人努力下,美國、北韓在1994年10月21日簽署〈朝美核框架協議〉(DPRK-U.S. Nuclear Agreed Framework),雙方同意各自在平壤、華盛頓設立辦公室、建立正式外交關係,北韓也承諾採取措施,實現朝鮮半島無核化,與今日承諾相同。

但2002年美國總統小布希將北韓列為「邪惡軸心國」,並將其列為核打擊對象,隨後北韓也指責美國違反〈朝美核框架協議〉,展開一連串的核彈試爆,迄今已成功試爆6次。

這種把戰爭情勢升高,並藉以迫使列強談判,從中獲得好處的「戰爭邊緣策略」(Brinkmanship),是北韓立國以來的一貫策略。今天川金會的成果,也讓不少人心中產生疑問:金正恩是否會故技重施?

川普表示,金正恩在會談中對他說,北韓從來沒和外國接觸那麼深過,這次金正恩想和他對話的意願,比他想和金正恩對話的意願更高,「他應該會實現文件內的承諾。」

整場川金會,可說幾乎照著金正恩的如意算盤在走。即便川普重申對北韓還有300多項制裁尚待推出,要等到北韓完全去核才解除制裁,而金正恩也沒有提出去核的時間表,但他卻藉著這次川金會換取雙邊關係改善,得到發展經濟的轉圜空間和時間。

表面上,身高差一截的金正恩,今天站在川普身邊,一路不停被川普拍背,像是他的小老弟一樣,但從川金會的結果看來,說這個「地表最強七年級生」是大贏家,一點也不為過。

抓姦

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